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alexk
Guest
The murder level in T&T continues to be a source of great concern to most of the population. At August 8, 2018, the murder level was 332 as compared to 296 people the same time last year.
That is a 12.1 per cent increase above last year and therefore, if we project this 12.1 per cent increase for the entire 2018, one would arrive at a murder level close to 554.
The highest murder level for the period 1956-2017 was in 2008, with a murder toll of 500.
With a projected murder level of 554 for 2018, it means that policy makers will have to overhaul the existing menu of strategies as they have failed. It must now become business unusual.
Figure 1 (at right) shows the relationship between the murder level in T&T for the period 2008-2018 and the index of productivity or output level for the same time period.
It indicates that the murder level increased while output level fell—assuming 2018’s productivity level was the same as 2017.
There can be a number of explanations for this.
One could be that workers became less enthusiastic as the murder level increased or workers left work earlier to reach home within certain hours to try and avoid being the target of crime during particular periods of time.
In terms of actual manufacturing capacity utilisation, which is an indication of the proportion of the manufacturing sector in use at any one time, Figure 2 (on next page) indicates that after 2014 when the murder level began to increase, there was a decrease in the manufacturing capacity utilisation rate from 70.8 per cent to 65 per cent.
This is not a sharp decline but it is the type of decline we would want to reverse.
There may be several reasons for the inverse relationship between manufacturing capacity utilisation and the murder level.
It may be that some workers may no longer be willing to work the 11 pm -7 am shift (a third shift for the manufacturing sector) simply because of the risk associated with the climate of crime existing in the country at this point in time.
The relationship between tourism inflows and the murder level is definitely an inverse one for T&T, as well.
When travel advisories go out from the relevant embassies, in particular the UK, Canadian and the US, there is the possibility that random tourists searching for a sun, sand, and sea location would not come to T&T but instead go to another Caribbean island, eg Barbados or Antigua and Barbuda, where there is a perceived lower level of crime (see Figure 3 on next page).
Meanwhile, Figure four, shows that as the unemployment rate in the economy increased (data is only available for the third quarter of 2017 for the unemployment rate and this was used as a proxy for 2017 on the whole), especially after 2014, the murder level in the economy also tended to increase.
Policy makers would want to pay careful attention to this and may want to introduce strategies that would improve the employment situation in the country, perhaps by simultaneously improving manufacturing capacity utilisation with the hope that a rise in employment could in turn lower the murder level."
The way forward
With a rising murder level, the business sector will definitely incur additional costs as they try to protect both their businesses and themselves.
For example, business people can incur the cost of having a security on staff and putting up a superior burglar proof system.
They would have to buy steel, employ a welder to install the burglar proof etc, and other expenditures along those lines.
This increases costs for the business person.
In an environment in which the consumer already has a decline in their incomes due to a higher unemployment level, passing on any part of this increase in cost to the consumer can result in a reduction in spending by consumers.
The high murder level has also forced many firms to employ immigrant labour as security. Generally, these “security” officers typically cannot stop an armed robbery, but they add to costs and firms employ them to give customers “a sense of safety.”
After 7 pm, some business establishments such as supermarkets and quick shops tend to lose business because customers are afraid of being out late.
Meanwhile, the appointment of Gary Griffith as Commissioner of Police may signal a change in the Government’s intentions and a deeper sense of purpose by bringing in a brighter, more charismatic person.
Griffith has promised the population “less talk and more action” and said one of his main mission was to reduce crime and the fear of crime, and regain the public’s trust and confidence in the Police Service.
If we don’t see change with this move, there is the possibility that “crapaud go smoke we pipe.”
DR ROGER HOSEIN
Senior economics lecturer at UWI, St Augustine, and co-ordinator of the Trade and Economic Development Unit